A beginner’s guide to NFL sports stats
Understanding the advanced NFL stats can be quite complicated, especially if you go straight into it without getting the basics first. However, if you are here to learn the basics, you’re in the right place.
The NFL is a complicated sport, especially to the untrained eye. However, if you play the sport itself, or have watched and been a fan for years, you can see its simplicity. That said, betting on it can be a simple task. Winning isn’t, however. Before you go into betting your favorite team or the team that you think will win, you must go into each of the team’s statistics.
Hence, here are some simplified advanced statistics you should know about.
Yards Per Carry
What do you think is the stat that represents a running back’s performance? Some people will say their touchdowns or their long runs. Others would also say that it is their YPC. Of course, a running back’s YPC depends a lot on external factors, like the offensive line play, injuries, etc. However, an excellent running back has a high average YPC.
Typically, an excellent running back has an average of no less than 4.0 yards per carry. If the team that you are betting on has a running back with an average YPC less than that, that team is almost certain to lose. It might not matter much in the first phase of the game, but it might catch up to them in the long run.
If you aren’t convinced, you can look at any year and see that the top running backs are belting 4.0 YPC and higher. The elite ones can even go for 5.0 yards. But what does this mean? This means that running backs are always gaining 4.0 yards and higher, and will most likely win a game against a team that has a running back with low average YPC.
Points Per Game
This stat is probably one of the easiest stat to read into. The points per game or PPG is calculated by summing up the number of games the team has played by their points throughout the season. The resulting number will be the average points they have in every game.
However, deciding a team’s performance by this stat alone does not amount to much as there are a lot of other factors you have to consider when betting on a team. Also, the PPG gives us insight into a team’s strength in defense. It is also used to calculate the PPG differential.
What is a PPG differential, you asked? It is the difference between a team’s PPG scored and the PPG allowed in each game. The number resulting from this formula will give us an insight into a team’s overall performance as they also include a team’s offensive and defensive stats.
Win probability is handy to know about if you want to predict if the team is about to win the match. So what is win probability? Win probability is the probability that a team will win a game by considering the current circumstances’ time, field position, down, and go-to distance.
Not only that, but the WP is also based on a model from a game with the same circumstances. Also, win probability affects the betting odds of a game.
Dropped passes is a stat that tends to get neglected by almost all quarterback rating systems. Drop passes happen when a receiver drops or blows a ball after getting passed on by a quarterback. This is important since drop passes also tend to affect the rating of a quarterback.
However, when a receiver tries to receive a ball that is out of bounds or is 10 feet above their head, it also affects their ratings. In short, the chemistry of the quarterback and the receiver is the first stat any quarterback and receiver rating system should prioritize.
Since both quarterback and receiver rating systems tend to neglect this aspect, you, as a bettor, should take this into account. A team is bound to lose when their quarterback and receiver don’t have good chemistry.
Generic Win Probability
The generic win probability or GWP is the probability that the team would win against an average team with more or less the same statistics. GWP also uses a model of a game from recent seasons or games with the same circumstances. However, since each game of football is different, each teams’ defensive and offensive powers will be adjusted in the Adjusted GWP or AdjGWP.
The stats mentioned above should be considered before betting on a team. However, to get these statistics, you need to do a little bit of research. That said, always be ready to dig a little deeper into the recent games and be more attentive as the game progresses.